2023 REVIEW AND 2024 OUTLOOK
Publication
February 2, 2024
Author
Billy Tartour
Summary
The year 2023 marks a major test for the art market. Not only has the world been turned upside down by major geopolitical conflicts, but there are also economic uncertainties such as the threat of recession and high interest rates. The direct consequence of these events is that the portfolios of the world's biggest collectors have been hit. We find ourselves in the historic situation where the world's ten biggest collectors have seen their assets decline, with the exception of Bernard Arnault. In such a context, how can art market players (auction houses, galleries, dealers) maintain the high demand for pieces reaching astronomical sums? How can the market sustain itself in the face of a general recession in all other investment assets? Despite an inevitable drop in sales, the players involved have managed to keep the market healthy, and 2024 should confirm all these efforts.
The artists at the top :
The most eagerly awaited period of the year was the autumn sales in New York. Sotheby's opened the ball with Emily Fisher Landau's collection of modern and contemporary art. The pressure was immense. The result was brilliant. 100% of the lots were sold, for a total of $406.4 million. And to top it all off, the greatest artist of modern art, Pablo Picasso, was in the spotlight with his " Femme à la montre ", sold for $139.4 million. This was the second-highest price ever achieved for Picasso, and the highest auction of the season.
The sale received considerable media coverage, and had the effect of reassuring collectors of modern and contemporary art.
To take the temperature of the market, it's essential to see how the health of the world's most expensive selling artists is faring. If the master of modern art Picasso is doing well, so is the king of contemporary art, Jean-Michel Basquiat. The African-American artist posted sales of $235 million for the whole of 2023. Naturally, he is at the top of the artists' ranking. But other artists, such as Keith Haring ($35 million) and Cecily Brown ($47 million), reached an all-time high and remain comfortably in the Top 10.
Other artists enjoyed spectacular success. In May, Sotheby's sold a Spider sculpture by Louise Bourgeois (represented by Hauser & Wirth) for $32.8 million. One of the icons of contemporary art, Bourgeois's spider is a symbol of maternal strength and testifies to the profound impact made by this female artist on the world of contemporary art.
In a different genre, Ethiopian-American artist Julie Mehretu (represented by White Cube) confirms collectors' interest in African art. Her work Walkers with the Dawn and Morning (2008) was sold by Sotheby's for $10.7 million in New York. This diptych is a dynamic work, marked by the complex layers and vibrant colors characteristic of Mehretu's work. It is the most expensive painting ever sold by an African artist.
The new stars of contemporary :
The Contemporary Art Market, which accounted for just $90 million in 2000, remains the locomotive of the Art Market this year, at $2.7 billion. While the art market has seen a definite downturn in 2023, contemporary art continues to move at a brisk pace.
This period represents a real challenge for the new generation of artists, whose prices have skyrocketed in recent years. Are collectors as enthusiastic about their work? Are the powerful international galleries (Gagosian, David Zwirner, Victoria Miro, Hauser & Wirth) that manage their careers managing to avoid the speculation that threatens them?
Once again this year, young artists in great demand on the market achieved dizzying results. Marina Perez Simao, Stefanie Heinze, Loie Hollowell, Emma Webster, Jenna Gribbon, Issy Wood and Ilana Savdie all sold for six-figure sums. This analysis shows a trend: women are taking over ultra-contemporary art.
But other artists of this generation have achieved even greater results. Jadé Fadojutimi (Gagosian) broke his personal record twice in the space of a year. The first was at Sotheby's, where A Thistle Throb sold for $1.68 million , and the second at Phillips, where Quirk my mannerism sold for $1.9 million.
Artist Avery Singer (Hauser & Wirth) saw one of his works go for $4 million in May at Christie's in Hong Kong. His visual language borrows from digital collage and uses palettes of black, white and shades of gray. Her first appearance at auction was in 2017, with a first canvas selling for $36,000. But the following year, she literally exploded with a work sold for $735,000.
Outlook for 2024 :
Another piece of good news for contemporary art is its ever-growing appeal to investors. Buyers with an estimated wealth of over 50 million euros devoted almost 30% of their investments to art this year, compared with an average of 19% for less affluent collectors.
This explains the proliferation of art-focused investment funds in recent months. Olivier Bourdelais has received approval from the AMF to launch his art investment fund, FrenchArtFund. This is the first fund dedicated to this asset to be validated by this authority.
Arnaud Dubois has launched Matis, a fund that enables investors to own a share in a painting by a major artist. The minimum investment is 20,000 euros. Each operation is based on a dedicated vehicle, and the investment medium is a convertible bond. Many family offices and asset managers are aware of this offer and encourage their clients to seize these opportunities to diversify their portfolios.
It will also be interesting to see how the NFT market develops. While non-fungible tokens experienced a massive boom two years ago, today the volume has collapsed: from $2.8 billion in transactions in 2022 to $80 million this year.
Finally, the major event of 2024 that everyone is looking forward to is the 60th Venice Biennale. Held in April, this event brings together the biggest collectors and the world of show business. This year, Adriano Pedrosa (curator of the Biennale) will bring together an impressive list of artists, and the world's leading galleries will propose blockbuster exhibitions. The Biennale often sets the trend for upcoming fairs and auctions.
In short, the economic context is no longer the same, making buyers more cautious. The years 2021 and 2022 were absolutely historic in a post-Covid period in full emulation.
However, the contemporary art market is remarkably resilient, with historic performances. And the market for ultra-contemporary art continues to enjoy international momentum, with buyers coming from New York, London, Paris, Hong Kong, Singapore and Seoul.
